If you want something to preserve value, you seek stability and a sense of security. We now know from the analysis of "The Problem" that money, paper, and every investment through intermediaries carry enormous risks. Where is the collateral? What remains of the guarantees?
Let’s be honest: storing value in aluminum also carries risks. I am going to polish these risks for you, in increasing order of importance. The greatest risk is time, followed by actual demand.
Imagine that in 3, 5, or 7 years, aluminum is worth less than it is today. How could that happen? For that scenario to become reality, a series of very specific conditions must be met. I can only provide the statements; it is up to you to question them and analyze the probability.
Will we see a return to open trade without embargoes? This would imply that our European leaders shake hands with the Kremlin and stop the war. Russia is one of the largest holders of bauxite (the raw material for aluminum) and was once our source of cheap natural gas. Do you believe this source will be restored, or will it be further restricted?
Due to rising energy prices, aluminum smelters are leaving Europe. We are becoming dependent on China, which is currently aggressively buying up European aluminum scrap. The EU is sounding the alarm. Will we regain our power position, or will we become entirely dependent on powers that can and will drive up the price without hesitation?
For the green transition, we have made our energy production weather-dependent. We have sidelined nuclear energy and fossil fuels. The billions invested have failed to meet expectations. Will energy prices fall in the next 3, 5, or 7 years while we must reinvest in nuclear energy (which takes decades) or remain dependent on other continents for fossil fuels?
Is our industry resistant to the shocks ahead—hyper-volatility, stagflation, and shifting consumer behavior? Will European companies survive in this economy without a fundamental shift in capital protection?
Suppose geopolitical peace returns and energy prices drop. Will the ECB finally issue a mea culpa? Will they finally become transparent in their actions and stop creating digital zeros behind our money supply? Will they dare to drastically cut government spending and raise taxes to pay off existing debt before taking on new ones? Or will we continue "kicking the can down the road"?
After months of preparation, the deed for my company, Motra Trading, was officially filed with the notary on Wednesday, February 25, 2026. On Friday, February 27, I received my VAT number. That afternoon, I thought to myself: "I must be patient; this is for the pioneers. It will take time to find buyers."
The following morning, Saturday, February 28, I opened my news app. The headlines about what started in Iran left no room for doubt. Anyone with common sense knew immediately: the Strait of Hormuz would be closed for a long time. The consequences, especially for Europe, would be drastic.
I was prepared for this, but I didn't think it would happen so fast. Meanwhile, we feel the ripple effects of the shockwaves arriving at our coast. We must think about our own future—and act accordingly.
Suppose these conditions are met and the system miraculously recovers. Is there a chance then that in 5 years, a loaf of bread will cost less than it does today? That your aluminum will be expressed in a lower value?
How you estimate that probability is an analysis you must make for yourself.
How it works: Step-by-Step
